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| #222431 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:49 AM 16.Oct.2008) TCPAT5 BULLETIN HURRICANE OMAR ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152008 500 AM AST THU OCT 16 2008 ...CORE OF OMAR RAPIDLY MOVING AWAY FROM THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ST. MARTIN/MAARTEN... SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...ST. BARTHELEMY...AND ANGUILLA. AT 5 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE ISLANDS OF VIEQUES AND CULEBRA HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. AT 5 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLANDS OF ST. KITTS AND NEVIS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...AND MONTSERRAT. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OMAR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.2 WEST OR ABOUT 70 MILES... 110 KM...NORTH OF ST. MARTIN. OMAR IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 25 MPH...41 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 125 MPH...205 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OMAR IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...ARE LIKELY OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM. ST. MAARTEN RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST TO 70 MPH...113 KM/HR. LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE DATA WAS 964 MB...28.47 INCHES. OMAR IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 20 INCHES...ACROSS THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE PATH OF OMAR. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE ALONG THE COASTS OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. OMAR COULD STILL PRODUCE LARGE SWELLS THAT WILL AFFECT THE WEST- AND SOUTH-FACING COASTS OF THE ISLANDS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. THESE SWELLS COULD CAUSE BEACH EROSION AND DAMAGE TO COASTAL STRUCTURES. REPEATING THE 500 AM AST POSITION...19.1 N...63.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 25 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
