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| #226047 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:00 PM 06.Nov.2008) TCDAT2 HURRICANE PALOMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172008 1000 PM EST THU NOV 06 2008 CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY...PLUS REPORTS FROM NEARBY NOAA BUOY 42057...INDICATE THAT PALOMA HAS STRENGTHENED INTO A HURRICANE. AT 2250Z...THE NOAA BUOY REPORTED A 1-MINUTE SUSTAINED WIND OF 62 KT WITH A PEAK GUST TO 74 KT...AND A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 993 MB. ALLOWING FOR A 1 MB PER 10 KT PRESSURE REDUCTION YIELDS AN ESTIMATED MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 987 MB...WHICH IS A TYPICAL CENTRAL PRESSURE FOR A LOW-END CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE LOCATED IN THE DEEP TROPICS. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.0/65 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...PLUS AN EYE FEATURE NOTED IN EARLIER INFRARED IMAGERY AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE DATA FURTHER SUPPORT MAKING PALOMA A HURRICANE. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW REMAINS EXCELLENT IN ALL QUADRANTS WITH A WELL-ESTABLISHED POLEWARD CHANNEL NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/07. THE EARLIER INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED OF 10 KT WAS PROBABLY MORE DUE TO RE-ORGANIZATION OF THE INNER-CORE THAN ACTUAL STORM PROPAGATION. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON A SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST BY 36 HOURS. AFTER THAT...HOWEVER...THE MODELS DIVERGE SHARPLY WITH THE UKMET...GFDN...NOGAPS...AND ECMWF MODELS TAKING A VERY SHEARED AND VERY WEAK SYSTEM WESTWARD...WHEREAS THE GFS...GFDL...AND HWRF MODELS MOVE A STRONGER AND MORE VERTICALLY DEEP CYCLONE ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL CUBA THROUGH 72 HOURS AND THEN WEAKEN THE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AFTER THAT. GIVEN THE CURRENT IMPRESSIVE ORGANIZATION AND EXPECTED CONTINUED STRENGTHENING...THE FORECAST REASONING FOR THIS ADVISORY...AS WITH PREVIOUS ADVISORIES...LEANS TOWARD THE GFS-GFDL-HWRF SOLUTION IN TAKING A STRONGER AND MORE VERTICALLY DEEP HURRICANE INTACT ACROSS CUBA THROUGH 60-72 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK AND IS SIMILAR TO A BLEND OF GFS...GFDL...AND HWRF MODELS. PALOMA HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED BY 35 KT DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...IT IS RARE FOR RAPID STRENGTHENING TO OCCUR FOR MORE THAN 48 HOURS...SO THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THAT PREMISE AND CALLS FOR THE CURRENT RAPID INTENSIFICATION TREND TO END IN 24 HOURS. THIS RAPID STRENGTHENING SCENARIO IS SUPPORTED BY THE VERY IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW PATTERN...AN EYE FEATURE...A RELATIVELY SMALL RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS...AND A SLOW FORWARD MOTION OVER 29C SSTS. THE GFDL MODEL ALSO RAPIDLY STRENGTHENS PALOMA TO 102 KT IN 36 HOURS...WHICH SEEMS QUITE REASONABLE. HOWEVER...BY 48 HOURS...THE SHIPS MODEL INDICATES THAT VERTICAL SHEAR WILL SHARPLY INCREASE FROM 5 KT TO 25 KT...SO STEADY WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR DURING DAYS 2-5. AS PALOMA PASSES OVER CUBA IN ABOUT 60 HOURS... LAND INTERACTION WILL ALSO LEAD TO A WEAKENING CYCLONE...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT PALOMA WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS CURRENTLY FORECAST AT 72 HOURS AND BEYOND AFTER IT EMERGES OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 07/0300Z 17.2N 81.8W 65 KT 12HR VT 07/1200Z 18.1N 81.8W 80 KT 24HR VT 08/0000Z 19.1N 81.5W 95 KT 36HR VT 08/1200Z 20.0N 80.8W 100 KT 48HR VT 09/0000Z 20.7N 79.8W 90 KT 72HR VT 10/0000Z 22.5N 77.5W 65 KT 96HR VT 11/0000Z 24.5N 74.5W 45 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 12/0000Z 27.5N 71.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ FORECASTER STEWART |
