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| #226082 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:14 AM 07.Nov.2008) TCDAT2 HURRICANE PALOMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172008 400 AM EST FRI NOV 07 2008 REPORTS FROM AIR FORCE RESERVE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE PALOMA IS STRENGTHENING. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS DROPPED TO AT LEAST 981 MB...AND THERE ARE MULTIPLE SFMR AND DROPSONDE ESTIMATES OF 65-70 KT SURFACE WINDS AROUND THE 16 N MI WIDE EYE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 70 KT...AND THIS MAY BE A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE. WHILE THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS GOOD IN ALL DIRECTIONS EXCEPT THE SOUTHEAST...ANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN SUGGEST THE HURRICANE IS EXPERIENCING ABOUT 10 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 005/8. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND NOT A LOT OF CHANGE IN THE FORECAST GUIDANCE. PALOMA IS BEING STEERED NORTHWARD BY A LARGE MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...AND THE STORM SHOULD TURN NORTHEASTWARD BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND STRONG WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE UNITED STATES DURING THE NEXT 24 HR OR SO. THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO CALL FOR THE HURRICANE TO SHEAR APART AT VARIOUS TIMES BETWEEN 24-96 HR...WITH THE REMNANT LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WINDING UP ANYWHERE FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TO OFF THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS FORECAST A VERTICALLY DEEP PALOMA TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS INTO THE ATLANTIC. SINCE THE INTENSITY FORECAST STILL CALLS FOR PALOMA TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE...THE TRACK FORECAST CONTINUES TO LEAN TOWARD THE GFDL/HWRF SOLUTIONS. THE NEW TRACK IS SIMILAR TO...BUT A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF...THE PREVIOUS TRACK. PALOMA HAS STRENGTHENED FROM 35 KT TO 70 KT IN THE LAST 24 HR...AND CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED STRENGTHENING FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HR. THE GFDL MODEL CALLS FOR PALOMA TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE IN ABOUT 30 HR...AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO. AFTER 24-36 HR...THE SHEAR INCREASES DRAMATICALLY ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE PALOMA TO SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKEN. THIS WEAKENING IS LIKELY TO BE AIDED BY PASSAGE ACROSS CUBA BETWEEN 48-72 HR. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION TO BEGIN IN ABOUT 96 HR AND BE COMPLETE BY 120 HR. THE LATEST GLOBAL MODEL RUNS CAST SOME DOUBT ON WHETHER THIS TRANSITION WILL OCCUR. HOWEVER...EVEN IF PALOMA DOES NOT BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IT SHOULD STILL WEAKEN DUE TO SHEAR. A HURRICANE WATCH WILL BE NECESSARY FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN CUBA LATER THIS MORNING. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 07/0900Z 17.8N 81.7W 70 KT 12HR VT 07/1800Z 18.6N 81.6W 80 KT 24HR VT 08/0600Z 19.5N 81.0W 95 KT 36HR VT 08/1800Z 20.4N 80.1W 100 KT 48HR VT 09/0600Z 21.1N 79.1W 90 KT 72HR VT 10/0600Z 23.0N 76.5W 60 KT 96HR VT 11/0600Z 25.0N 73.5W 45 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 12/0600Z 27.0N 70.5W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ FORECASTER BEVEN |
