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| #226127 (Received by flhurricane at: 9:34 AM 07.Nov.2008) TCDAT2 HURRICANE PALOMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172008 1000 AM EST FRI NOV 07 2008 PALOMA IS CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN THIS MORNING WITH HINTS OF AN EYE ON VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 75 KT AND IS IN LINE WITH MOST RECENT DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB/SAB. FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO BEFORE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INCREASES. CURIOUSLY...THE GFDL/HWRF NOW SHOW THE HURRICANE COMING UP A BIT SHY OF MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS. UNTIL WE SEE SOME SIGNS THAT PALOMA IS NOT CONTINUING TO INTENSIFY...IT IS BEST TO KEEP THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OF THE SYSTEM BECOMING A MAJOR HURRICANE. BY SUNDAY...THE SHEAR INCREASES TO SUCH A HIGH DEGREE THAT PALOMA MAY WEAKEN EVEN FASTER THAN SHOWN BELOW. ON TUESDAY...THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE...BUT SINCE THE BAROCLINIC INFLUENCES SEEM LIMITED...REMNANT LOW SEEMS LIKE THE MORE ACCURATE TERM. THE CANADIAN TERM POST-TROPICAL MAY ALSO FIT THIS SITUATION. SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT PALOMA HAS SLOWED SOMEWHAT THIS MORNING AND IS NOW MOVING 005/6. VERY LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE EARLY PART OF THE NHC FORECAST AS GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A NORTHWARD THEN NORTHEASTWARD TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. THERE ARE STILL SIGNIFICANT TIMING DIFFERENCES ON HOW FAST PALOMA LEAVES THE CARIBBEAN...WHICH IS PROBABLY TIED TO HOW QUICKLY THE STORM FALLS APART. A POSSIBLE SOLUTION IS THAT THE EFFECTS OF LAND INTERACTION AND HIGH SHEAR CAUSE THE HURRICANE TO LOSE VERTICAL COHERENCE AFTER A CUBAN LANDFALL...CAUSING PALOMA TO SLOW DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY. THERE IS ALSO SOME EVIDENCE OF THIS POSSIBILTY IN THE MOST RECENT GFS AND HWRF MODEL RUNS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NOT AS FAST THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE BUT IS STILL AHEAD OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 07/1500Z 18.3N 81.6W 75 KT 12HR VT 08/0000Z 19.1N 81.3W 90 KT 24HR VT 08/1200Z 19.9N 80.5W 100 KT 36HR VT 09/0000Z 20.8N 79.4W 90 KT 48HR VT 09/1200Z 21.6N 78.3W 75 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 10/1200Z 23.0N 76.5W 50 KT 96HR VT 11/1200Z 24.5N 74.5W 30 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 12/1200Z 26.0N 72.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER BLAKE |
