Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 1995Hurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995
The Atlantic is quiet
|
Show Selection: |
| #226250 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:08 AM 08.Nov.2008) TCDAT2 HURRICANE PALOMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172008 400 AM EST SAT NOV 08 2008 REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT PALOMA CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...WITH THE CENTRAL PRESSURE FALLING TO 950 MB. THE AIRCRAFT REPORTED 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 122 KT...AND TWO ESTIMATES OF 105 KT FROM THE STEPPED FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER. BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 110 KT. THIS INTENSITY IS LESS THAN THE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 115 KT FROM TAFB AND 127 KT FROM SAB...WHICH SUGGESTS PALOMA COULD STRENGTHEN SOME MORE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS A WOBBLY 050/06. PALOMA IS BEING STEERED NORTHEASTWARD BETWEEN AND MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS PATTERN SHOULD STEER THE HURRICANE GENERALLY NORTHEASTWARD FOR ABOUT 36 HR...AND THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS TIME. AFTER THAT...THE FORECAST TRACK CONFIDENCE DECREASES SIGNIFICANTLY. THE U.S. TROUGH IS FORECAST TO LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST...WITH LOW-LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPING NORTH OF PALOMA. WHILE THIS HAPPENS...A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP WEST OF PALOMA. IF THIS FORECAST EVOLUTION IS CORRECT...BY 96-120 HR IT WOULD LEAVE THE CYCLONE IN EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW...NORTHERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW...AND NORTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW. THE MOST LIKELY RESULT OF THIS WOULD BE FOR PALOMA TO SHEAR APART...WITH THE REMNANT LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION MOVING GENERALLY WESTWARD IN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE NOW SHOWS SOME SORT OF WESTWARD MOTION AFTER 72 HR...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A SPREAD AMONGST THE MODEL 120 HR POSITIONS THAT RANGES FROM THE FLORIDA STRAITS TO SOUTHWEST OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. THE TWO EXCEPTIONS ARE THE GFS AND THE HWRF...WHICH FORECAST PALOMA TO MOVE FAR ENOUGH TO THE EAST THAT IT DOES NOT GET CAUGHT UNDER THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE. SINCE THIS COULD HAPPEN IF PALOMA MAINTAINS SOME VERTICAL INTEGRITY...THE NEW TRACK FORECAST WILL NOT FULLY FOLLOW THE WESTWARD MOTION FORECASTS. INSTEAD...IT SHOWS ONLY A SLOW WESTWARD MOTION AFTER 96 HR. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DATA FROM THE NOAA G-IV JET SHOW THAT PALOMA HAS ONLY A FEW MORE HOURS TO STRENGTHEN. ANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN INDICATE ABOUT 20 KT OF SOUTH-WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...AND THE JET DATA SHOW WESTERLY FLOW IMPINGING ON THE HURRICANE BETWEEN 250-500 MB. THE SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE TO ABOUT 40 KT IN ABOUT 24 HR AND REMAIN STRONG THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS SHOULD CAUSE PALOMA TO STEADILY WEAKEN... WITH THE WEAKENING BEING ACCELERATED BY PASSAGE OVER CUBA IN 24-36 HR. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...CALLING FOR PALOMA TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM BY 48 HR AND A REMNANT LOW BY 96 HR. IT IS POSSIBLE THE CYCLONE COULD WEAKEN FASTER THAN FORECAST...ESPECIALLY AFTER 24 HR. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 08/0900Z 19.5N 80.1W 110 KT 12HR VT 08/1800Z 20.1N 79.4W 110 KT 24HR VT 09/0600Z 20.8N 78.2W 95 KT...NEAR COAST OF CUBA 36HR VT 09/1800Z 21.4N 77.2W 65 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 10/0600Z 21.8N 76.5W 45 KT...OVER WATER 72HR VT 11/0600Z 22.5N 76.0W 35 KT...DISSIPATING 96HR VT 12/0600Z 23.0N 76.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 13/0600Z 23.0N 76.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER BEVEN |
