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| #226296 (Received by flhurricane at: 9:58 AM 08.Nov.2008) TCDAT2 HURRICANE PALOMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172008 1000 AM EST SAT NOV 08 2008 THE LAST FIX FROM THE AIR FORCE PLANE SUGGESTED THE MINIMUM PRESSURE HAS DROPPED TO LEAST 943 MB. IN ADDITION...PEAK FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS FROM THE AIR FORCE PLANE WERE 134 KT WITH SFMR READINGS OF 127 KT...THOUGH THE LATTER VALUE COULD BE A LITTLE INFLATED DUE TO SHOALING AROUND LITTLE CAYMAN/CAYMAN BRAC. SINCE THE PLANE DEPARTED...CLOUD-TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED A BIT...SO PERHAPS PALOMA'S INTENSITY HAS PEAKED. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 120 KT...AND THE HURRICANE COULD HAVE BEEN A LITTLE STRONGER A FEW HOURS AGO. TWO MORE PLANES WILL BE IN THE AREA IN A FEW HOURS. RADAR FROM CAMAGUEY AND REPORTS FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE SUGGEST THAT PALOMA IS STARTING AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE WITH CONCENTRIC EYEWALLS NOTED. THIS STRUCTURE...COMBINED WITH SHEAR THAT IS LIKELY TO INCREASE TODAY...SUGGESTS THAT SLOW WEAKENING IS LIKELY. HOWEVER...PALOMA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE UP THROUGH LANDFALL. THEREAFTER A RAPID WEAKENING SEEMS PROBABLE DUE TO THE EFFECTS OF LAND AND RATHER HIGH SHEAR FORECAST BY ALL GLOBAL MODELS. THIS WEAKENING SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND PALOMA COULD START TO DISSIPATE IN A FEW DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE SHIPS MODEL INITIALLY AND THEN IS A BLEND OF THE REST OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE AFTER LANDFALL IN CUBA. THE HURRICANE HAS TURNED A LITTLE MORE TO THE RIGHT AND APPEARS TO BE MOVING AT 060/8. NO CHANGE IN THE STEERING PATTERN IS EXPECTED IN THE SHORT-TERM...REQUIRING AN EASTWARD ADJUSTMENT OF THE NHC FORECAST. THEREAFTER...THE MODELS ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT THAT PALOMA WILL DECOUPLE AND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER WILL BE LEFT BEHIND OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. LITTLE CHANGE IS MADE TO THE FORECAST IN THE LATER PERIODS AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ISN'T TOO FAR FROM THE MODEL CONSENSUS. IT IS WORTH EMPHASIZING THAT PALOMA WILL LIKELY BE QUITE WEAK AS IT BEGINS TO MOVE WESTWARD AT THE END OF THE PERIOD DUE TO STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR. EXCEPTIONALLY HIGH STORM SURGE VALUES OVER 20 FEET ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF CUBA IN THE GULF OF GUACANAYABO DUE TO THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF PALOMA. PALOMA IS TIED FOR THE SECOND STRONGEST ATLANTIC HURRICANE EVER NOTED IN NOVEMBER...THE STRONGEST BEING LENNY IN 1999. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 08/1500Z 19.9N 79.3W 120 KT 12HR VT 09/0000Z 20.4N 78.2W 110 KT 24HR VT 09/1200Z 21.0N 77.0W 85 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 10/0000Z 21.5N 76.4W 60 KT 48HR VT 10/1200Z 22.0N 76.0W 45 KT 72HR VT 11/1200Z 22.5N 75.8W 30 KT...DISSIPATING 96HR VT 12/1200Z 23.0N 76.3W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 13/1200Z 23.0N 77.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER BLAKE |
