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| #226383 (Received by flhurricane at: 9:55 PM 08.Nov.2008) TCDAT2 HURRICANE PALOMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172008 1000 PM EST SAT NOV 08 2008 THE LAST AIR FORCE RESERVE RECON REPORT AT 2305Z INDICATED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 968 MB...WITH AN EARLIER MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 118 KT IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. SINCE THAT TIME...PALOMA HAS MOVED INLAND AND THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT FROM THE SOUTH...AND LAND INTERACTION WITH CUBA HAS SIGNIFICANTLY DEGRADED THE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION AS NOTED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. HOWEVER...RADAR DATA FROM CAMAGUEY CUBA ARE STILL INDICATING STRONG CONVECTIVE BANDING OF 50 DBZ AND HIGHER VALUES COMPRISING THE NORTHERN EYEWALL. BASED ON THIS INFORMATION AND THE POSSIBILITY THAT STRONG WINDS STILL EXIST OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE GULF OF GUACANAYABO...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ONLY DECREASED TO 100 KT...MAINTAINING PALOMA AS A MAJOR HURRICANE. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 055/06 KT. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AS PALOMA MOVES ACROSS CUBA. AFTER 24 HOURS...THE FORWARD MOTION OF PALOMA IS EXPECTED TO BE INHIBITED BY A BUILDING LOW- MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE. AS PALOMA WEAKENS BETWEEN CUBA AND THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS DUE TO STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR...THE LOW- AND UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS SHOULD DECOUPLE. ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE NOW IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON A WEAKENED PALOMA MOVING BACK TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AFTER 72 HOURS. THE KEY...OF COURSE...IS HOW STRONG WILL THAT CIRCULATION BE AT DAYS 3-5. ALTHOUGH THE 200 MB WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE WESTERLY AND IN EXCESS OF 40 KT...THE 300 MB WIND FLOW IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO 15-20 KT AND BECOME SOMEWHAT DIFLUENT...WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR SOME MODERATE CONVECTION TO PERSIST NEAR THE CENTER AND MAINTAIN PALOMA AS A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK AND IS CLOSE TO THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH 72 HOURS. PALOMA SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN DUE TO INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR AND LAND INTERACTION WITH CUBA FOR THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS. AFTER EMERGING OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD BE THE MAIN WEAKENING FACTOR. HOWEVER...AS MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY...MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE FORECASTING THE MID-LEVEL FLOW BELOW 30,000 FT TO DECREASE TO 15-20 KT...WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR SOME MODERATE CONVECTION TO PERSIST NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER...AND MAINTAIN PALOMA AS A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE. THIS SCENARIO IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE MODELS FORECASTING UNUSUALLY COLD 200 MB TEMPERATURES OF AROUND -55C...WHICH WOULD ACT TO INCREASE THE INSTABILITY AND SUPPORT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BEYOND 72 HOURS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 09/0300Z 20.9N 77.7W 100 KT...INLAND 12HR VT 09/1200Z 21.4N 77.0W 65 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 10/0000Z 21.8N 76.3W 50 KT 36HR VT 10/1200Z 22.3N 75.9W 40 KT 48HR VT 11/0000Z 22.6N 75.8W 30 KT...DISSIPATING 72HR VT 12/0000Z 23.0N 76.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 13/0000Z 23.5N 77.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 14/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER STEWART |
