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| #226422 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:58 AM 09.Nov.2008) TCDAT2 HURRICANE PALOMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172008 400 AM EST SUN NOV 09 2008 RADAR IMAGERY FROM CUBA SUGGESTS THAT THE CENTER OF PALOMA IS A LITTLE BEHIND THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION...WHICH HAS WARMED CONSIDERABLY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. IN ADDITION...THE RADAR PRESENTATION IS DEGRADING RAPIDLY. WITH NO DIRECT INFORMATION AVAILABLE...THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS BASED PRIMARILY ON THE DECAY SHIPS MODEL...BUT I SUSPECT THIS ESTIMATE IS ON THE HIGH SIDE. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE...WITH CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY...IS 050/4. WITH THE SLOWING OF THE FORWARD SPEED...IT APPEARS THAT THE DECOUPLING OF PALOMA IS UNDERWAY. STRONG UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL TURN TO WESTERLY OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...WHILE A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN A VERY HIGH SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR PALOMA THAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THE WEAKENING TREND...EVEN AFTER THE CYCLONE EMERGES OVER WATER. IF THE PRESENT CONVECTIVE TRENDS CONTINUE...PALOMA COULD DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW IN 24-36 HOURS. OF ALL THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE...ONLY THE NOGAPS MAINTAINS A CLOSED CIRCULATION OUT TO 96 HOURS. A NUMBER OF THE BETTER-PERFORMING TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS SHOW PALOMA...OR ITS REMNANTS...BEING PUSHED BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST OVER CUBA AGAIN BENEATH THE BUILDING LOW-LEVEL RIDGE...AND IF THIS HAPPENS THE SYSTEM WOULD DEGENERATE EVEN FASTER THAN SHOWN BELOW. THE TRACK FORECAST IS DIFFICULT BECAUSE OF THE STRONG SHEAR. THE LONGER PALOMA HOLDS TOGETHER THE FARTHER NORTHEAST IT WILL GET. THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT BY 48 HOURS THE NORTHEASTWARD MOTION WILL STOP. AS THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUIDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES...THE HWRF...GFDL...UKMET...AND ECMWF TURN THE REMNANTS OF THE SYSTEM SOUTHWESTWARD BACK ACROSS CUBA...WHILE THE GFS AND THE NOGAPS TURN THEM MORE WESTWARD TO THE NORTH OF CUBA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE LATTER OF THESE SCENARIOS...ALTHOUGH IN EITHER CASE THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE LEFT TO BE CONCERNED ABOUT. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 09/0900Z 21.3N 77.4W 75 KT 12HR VT 09/1800Z 21.6N 77.1W 60 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 10/0600Z 22.2N 76.5W 40 KT 36HR VT 10/1800Z 22.7N 76.0W 30 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 11/0600Z 23.0N 76.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 12/0600Z 23.0N 76.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN |
