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| #226510 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:37 PM 09.Nov.2008) TCDAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION PALOMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172008 400 PM EST SUN NOV 09 2008 DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN ABSENT FROM PALOMA SINCE ABOUT 10Z THIS MORNING...THOUGH THE HOLGUIN RADAR IN CUBA DOES SHOW SOME MODEST BUT DECREASING RAINFALL IN BANDS EAST OF THE CENTER. THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS SOMEWHAT OF AN EDUCATED GUESS FOR THIS OVERLAND CYCLONE...GIVEN THE LACK OF RECONNAISSANCE OBSERVATIONS AND DVORAK ANALYSES. HOWEVER GIVEN THE FACT THAT PALOMA HAS BEEN WITHOUT DEEP CONVECTION AND OVER LAND ALL DAY IT SEEMS CERTAIN THAT THE CIRCULATION HAS SPUN DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE EARLY TODAY. AVAILABLE CUBAN SURFACE OBSERVING STATIONS AND CONTINUITY SUGGEST THAT PALOMA HAS WEAKENED TO A 30 KT TROPICAL DEPRESSION. PALOMA HAS NEARLY COME TO A HALT THIS AFTERNOON WITH INITIAL MOTION OF ABOUT 360 DEGREES AT 1 KT. THE CYCLONE SHOULD BE STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW IN THE ATMOSPHERE AND THE FORECAST TRACK IS THUS CLOSEST TO BAM SHALLOW...AND SLIGHTLY WEST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR...STAYING OVER LAND FOR ALMOST A DAY...AND DRY STABLE AIR BEING ADVECTED INTO THE CIRCULATION FROM AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS LIKELY LEADING TO PALOMA'S IMMINENT DEMISE. UNLESS DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CYCLONE'S CENTER IS RE-INITIATED SOON...PALOMA MAY BE DECLARED A REMNANT LOW TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 09/2100Z 21.2N 78.0W 30 KT 12HR VT 10/0600Z 21.6N 78.1W 30 KT...REMNANT LOW...INLAND 24HR VT 10/1800Z 22.2N 78.2W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 11/0600Z 22.7N 78.3W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 11/1800Z 23.0N 78.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA/PASCH |
