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| #25330 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:32 PM 08.Jun.2005) TCDAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT WED JUN 08 2005 DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS INDICATE THAT THE DEPRESSION REMAINS POORLY-ORGANIZED...WITH A BROAD AREA OF LIGHT WINDS NEAR THE ESTIMATED CENTER. THEY DID REPORT ONE 35 KT WIND AT THE 1000 FT FLIGHT LEVEL...ON THEIR LAST OUTBOUND LEG ABOUT 70 N MI NE OF THE CENTER. BASED ON THAT OBSERVATION...THE INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. ON SATELLITE IMAGERY HOWEVER...THE CLOUD PATTERN IS NOT IMPRESSIVE AND THE BANDING FEATURES WARRANT ONLY A T1.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE. SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...ASSOCIATED WITH A SHARP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 90W... CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. SOME ABATEMENT OF THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED BUT GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS WILL BE ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS ONE. THIS IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE SHIPS GUIDANCE...AND A LITTLE LOWER THAN THE GFDL FORECAST. INITIAL MOTION IS SLOWLY NORTHWARD...005/05. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A RIDGE BUILDING TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WHICH SHOULD INDUCE A GRADUAL BEND IN HEADING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST...AND SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR THIS PACKAGE IS QUITE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE. THIS IS SLIGHTLY EAST OF THE LATEST GFDL TRACK AND SIMILAR TO THE DEEP-LAYER BAM TRACK. IT IS IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK SHOWN HERE...BECAUSE OF UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST...ESPECIALLY IN THE 2-3 DAY TIME FRAME. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 09/0300Z 17.6N 83.9W 30 KT 12HR VT 09/1200Z 18.7N 84.1W 30 KT 24HR VT 10/0000Z 21.0N 84.6W 35 KT 36HR VT 10/1200Z 23.5N 85.7W 45 KT 48HR VT 11/0000Z 25.8N 86.8W 50 KT 72HR VT 12/0000Z 30.5N 88.5W 50 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 13/0000Z 35.0N 88.0W 25 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 14/0000Z...INLAND...DISSIPATED |
