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| #25356 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:40 AM 09.Jun.2005) TCDAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT THU JUN 09 2005 SATELLITE IMAGERY AND REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT...OVER ALL...THE WIND FIELD OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE IS BETTER DEFINED THAN IT WAS YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE MAXIMUM WINDS AND SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION REMAIN AT LEAST 75 N MI FROM THE CENTER. THE MAXIMUM WINDS REPORTED BY THE AIRCRAFT ARE 34 KT...ALONG WITH A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1002 MB. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 30 KT...WHICH IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH OBSERVATIONS FROM THE NEW NOAA BUOY 42056. THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 360/7. THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. THE DEPRESSION SHOULD MOVE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A DEVELOPING DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE AN INITIAL NORTHWARD MOTION... FOLLOWED BY A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TURN IN 12-24 HR. THIS MOTION WILL LIKELY BRING THE SYSTEM NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST IN ABOUT 72 HR. AFTER THAT TIME...THE CYCLONE SHOULD RECURVE INTO THE WESTERLIES OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. ALL DYNAMICAL MODELS AGREE ON THIS GENERAL TRACK...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN SPEED BETWEEN THE SLOWER GFS AND THE FASTER UKMET... NOGAPS...AND GFDL. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE GFDL AND UKMET...AND IS NUDGED JUST A LITTLE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE BROAD WIND STRUCTURE...THE CURRENT LACK OF CENTRAL CONVECTION... AND SOUTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SEEN IN SATELLITE IMAGERY ALL SUGGEST THAT INTENSIFICATION SHOULD BE SLOWER THAN NORMAL. INDEED...LARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGEST THAT MODERATE SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD PERSIST ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. INTENSITY GUIDANCE MODELS RESPOND TO THIS BY FORECASTING ONLY MODEST STRENGTHENING...WITH SHIPS AND THE GFDL BOTH CALLING FOR WINDS TO REACH ABOUT 50 KT IN 36-48 HR. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR SIMILAR STRENGTHENING UNTIL LANDFALL...FOLLOWED BY EVENTUAL DISSIPATION OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. IT IS IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK SHOWN HERE...BECAUSE OF UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST...ESPECIALLY IN THE 2-3 DAY TIME FRAME...AS WELL AS THE LARGE SIZE OF THE DEPRESSION. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 09/0900Z 18.6N 83.9W 30 KT 12HR VT 09/1800Z 20.0N 84.2W 35 KT 24HR VT 10/0600Z 22.2N 84.8W 40 KT 36HR VT 10/1800Z 24.7N 85.8W 45 KT 48HR VT 11/0600Z 27.2N 87.0W 50 KT 72HR VT 12/0600Z 31.5N 88.5W 40 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 13/0600Z 36.5N 87.0W 25 KT...INLAND |
