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| #25481 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:42 PM 09.Jun.2005) TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM ARLENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT THU JUN 09 2005 SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT ARLENE HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED AND IN FACT...THE CYCLONE LOOKS WEAKER THAN EARLIER THIS MORNING. WIND SHEAR HAS BEEN AFFECTING THE SYSTEM AND THE CIRCULATION CENTER HAS BECOME SEPARATED FROM THE CONVECTION. IT IS ASSUMED THAT THERE ARE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN THE CONVECTIVE BANDS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER...SO INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 35 KNOTS. AN AIR FORCE PLANE IS CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING ARLENE. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF STRENGTHENING WHEN THE SHEAR RELAXES AS THE UPPER-TROUGH WEAKENS IN 24 HOURS OR SO. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL THAT SHOWS A DECREASE IN THE SHEAR WITHIN THE 24 TO 36 HOUR PERIOD. THEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR SOME MODEST STRENGTHENING. ARLENE HAS BEEN MOVING A LITTLE BIT SLOWER THAN ANTICIPATED AND THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 350 DEGREES AT ABOUT 6 KNOTS. THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IS FORECAST TO BUILD...AND THAT PATTERN SHOULD FORCE ARLENE ON A NORTH- NORTHWESTERLY TRACK WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. WHILE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO...IT IS NOT AS FAST AS MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE. IN SUMMARY...ARLENE IS EXPECTED TO CROSS OR PASS VERY NEAR THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY. IT THEN WILL BE MOVING OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WHERE IT COULD STRENGTHEN A LITTLE...BEFORE REACHING THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. FORECASTER AVILA/KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 09/2100Z 20.2N 84.2W 35 KT 12HR VT 10/0600Z 21.5N 84.8W 35 KT 24HR VT 10/1800Z 24.0N 86.0W 45 KT 36HR VT 11/0600Z 26.5N 87.3W 50 KT 48HR VT 11/1800Z 29.5N 88.5W 50 KT 72HR VT 12/1800Z 34.5N 87.5W 25 KT...INLAND DISSIPATING 96HR VT 13/1800Z 40.0N 83.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 14/1800Z...DISSIPATED |
