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| #25638 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:56 AM 10.Jun.2005) TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ARLENE ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT FRI JUN 10 2005 ...ARLENE STRENGTHENS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO... ...HURRICANE WATCH AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... AT 11 AM...1500 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO ST MARKS FLORIDA...INCLUDING LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. ALSO AT 11 AM ...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO PANAMA CITY FLORIDA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE DRY TORTUGAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA DURING THE NEXT 36 HR. AT 11 AM EDT...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR CUBA HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. SATELLITE IMAGES...AIRCRAFT DATA...AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF ARLENE HAS REFORMED A LITTLE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS POSITION. AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARLENE WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.0 NORTH... LONGITUDE 84.9 WEST OR ABOUT 440 MILES... 705 KM... SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND ABOUT 470 MILES... 755 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA. ARLENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF ARLENE WILL BE APPROACHING THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH ARLENE WILL ARRIVE MUCH EARLIER THAN THE CENTER. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH... 95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ARLENE COULD REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE LANDFALL. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES ...240 KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA. GENERAL 3 TO 5 INCH RAINS WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER AMOUNTS TO OVER 7 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH ARLENE WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION BY FRIDAY EVENING. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. WATER LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY ABOUT ONE-HALF FOOT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY OCCUR OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS TODAY. REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...24.0 N... 84.9 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM EDT. FORECASTER KNABB/AVILA |
