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| #25829 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:40 AM 11.Jun.2005) TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM ARLENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 4 AM CDT SAT JUN 11 2005 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH ARLENE HAS BECOME RATHER DISORGANIZED...WITH NO NEW SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE BURSTS TO REPLACE THE ONE THAT DISSIPATED JUST AFTER 00Z. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER HAS FOUND MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 69 KT WELL NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER AT 850 MB...ALONG WITH A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 993 MB. COMPARISON OF AIRCRAFT WINDS WITH BUOYS AND C-MAN STATIONS SOUTH OF APALACHICOLA SUGGESTS THE FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT BEING MIXED TO THE SURFACE AT THE NORMAL 70-80 PERCENT VALUES...AT LEAST AT THAT DISTANCE FROM THE CENTER. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WILL REMAIN 60 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...ALTHOUGH THIS MIGHT BE A BIT GENEROUS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 320/16. ARLENE IS BEING STEERED BY DEEP LAYER RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...WITH ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE INDICATING THE STORM SHOULD GRADUALLY RECURVE AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. ALL DYNAMICAL MODELS AGREE WITH THIS SCENARIO...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR ARELENE TO GRADUALLY TURN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD BEFORE LANDFALL ON THE NORTHERN GULF COAST IN 12-18 HR. GRADUAL RECURVATURE INTO THE WESTERLIES IS EXPECTED AFTER LANDFALL. THERE SEEM TO BE TWO POSSIBILITIES FOR THE INTENSITY BEFORE LANDFALL. THE FIRST IS THAT A NEW CONVECTIVE BURST DEVELOPS DURING THE UPCOMING DIURNAL MAXIMUM...AND ARLENE MAKES ANOTHER ATTEMPT TO BECOME A HURRICANE. THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL FOLLOW THIS POSSIBILITY. HOWEVER...THE SECOND POSSIBILITY IS THAT THE ABUNDANT DRY AIR SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NEAR ARLENE HAS BEEN ENTRAINED INTO THE STORM AND WILL SUPPRESS CONVECTION DURING THE REMAINING TIME BEFORE LANDFALL. IF THAT HAPPENS...ARLENE MAY WELL WEAKEN BEFORE LANDFALL. IT WILL LIKELY TAKE ONE MORE FORECAST CYCLE BEFORE IT BECOMES CLEAR WHICH POSSIBILITY IS OCCURRING. THERE IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY THAT ARLENE WILL NOT BECOME A HURRICANE. HOWEVER...THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL IT BECOMES CLEAR THAT THIS WILL NOT HAPPEN. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 11/0900Z 28.4N 87.1W 60 KT 12HR VT 11/1800Z 30.1N 88.0W 65 KT 24HR VT 12/0600Z 32.5N 88.5W 45 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 12/1800Z 35.5N 88.5W 30 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 13/0600Z 39.5N 86.5W 20 KT...INLAND DISSIPATING 72HR VT 14/0600Z...DISSIPATED |
