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| #25831 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:44 AM 11.Jun.2005) TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ARLENE ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 4 AM CDT SAT JUN 11 2005 ...ARELENE BECOMES SOMEWHAT LESS ORGANIZED...CONTINUING NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST FROM PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI EASTWARD TO DESTIN FLORIDA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER EASTWARD TO WEST OF PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI...AND ALSO FROM EAST OF DESTIN FLORIDA EASTWARD TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FROM GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER.....INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...AND ALSO FROM INDIAN PASS FLORIDA EASTWARD TO STEINHATCHEE RIVER FLORIDA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND ADJACENT LAND AREAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 4 AM CDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARLENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.1 WEST OR ABOUT 130 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND ABOUT 170 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MOBILE ALABAMA. ARLENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED TODAY. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OR ARLENE NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 70 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH ARLENE HAS DECREASED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL FOR ARLENE TO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES...MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. A NOAA AUTOMATED STATION SOUTH OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 46 MPH WITH A GUST TO 69 MPH. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 991 MB...29.26 INCHES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. WATER LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY ABOUT ONE FOOT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. ARLENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ALONG AND TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST TRACK ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...THE SOUTHEAST...THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...AND INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE EASTERN GULF COAST. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ALABAMA...SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA...THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AND NORTHWESTERN FLORIDA TODAY. REPEATING THE 4 AM CDT POSITION...28.4 N... 87.1 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 991 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 7 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 10 AM CDT. FORECASTER BEVEN |
