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| #268524 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:37 PM 28.May.2009) TCDAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012009 500 PM AST THU MAY 28 2009 CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE HAS DECREASED SOMEWHAT THIS AFTERNOON AND IS NOW LIMITED TO THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 30 KT...WHICH REMAINS THE INITIAL INTENSITY. THE FORECAST TRACK KEEPS THE CENTER OVER THE GULF STREAM FOR THE NEXT 6-12 HR IN A LIGHT SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...SO SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING COULD OCCUR DURING THAT TIME AS SHOWN BY THE SHIPS MODEL. AFTER THAT...COLDER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING SHEAR SHOULD CAUSE WEAKENING. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BY 36 HR AND DISSIPATE COMPLETELY AFTER 48 HR. IT IS POSSBLE THAT BOTH OF THESE EVENTS COULD HAPPEN EARLIER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 055/14. THE DEPRESSION IS EMBEDDED IN THE WESTERLIES BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND EASTERN CANADA. THIS PATTERN SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE GENERALLY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL DISSIPATION. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 28/2100Z 37.7N 69.4W 30 KT 12HR VT 29/0600Z 38.7N 67.0W 35 KT 24HR VT 29/1800Z 40.4N 62.8W 30 KT 36HR VT 30/0600Z 42.2N 57.5W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 30/1800Z 43.9N 52.5W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 31/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BEVEN |
