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| #268580 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:58 PM 28.May.2009) TCDAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012009 1100 PM AST THU MAY 28 2009 THE LAST FEW VISIBLE IMAGES INDICATED THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION WAS BECOMING SOMEWHAT EXPOSED TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. THE CONVECTION ITSELF HAS SHRUNK A BIT IN SIZE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND DATA T-NUMBERS HAVE FALLEN TO 1.5 FROM SAB AND REMAIN 2.0 FROM TAFB. A QUIKSCAT PASS AT 2330 UTC SHOWED A FEW TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE VECTORS THAT APPEAR TO HAVE BEEN AFFECTED BY RAIN. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING HELD AT 30 KT. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE DATA SHOW THAT THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY HUGGING THE NORTH WALL OF THE GULF STREAM...AND THE FORECAST TRACK TAKES THE CENTER NORTHWARD ACROSS THE WALL OVER COLDER WATERS WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST STILL ALLOWS FOR THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BEFORE THIS HAPPENS...BUT IT WILL HAVE TO HAPPEN SOON. THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE GENERALLY INDICATES THAT THE DEPRESSION WILL BE TANGLED WITHIN A BAROCLINIC ZONE TO ITS NORTH WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR IT TO BE EXTRATROPICAL AT THAT POINT. DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED BY 48 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM IS OVERTAKEN BY ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY NEAR NEW ENGLAND. THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN MOVING A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND THE BULK OF THE MODELS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 070/13 AS THE SYSTEM IS BEING STEERED BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND A LARGE TROUGH OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 29/0300Z 38.1N 67.8W 30 KT 12HR VT 29/1200Z 39.1N 65.0W 35 KT 24HR VT 30/0000Z 41.2N 60.5W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT 30/1200Z 43.4N 55.4W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 31/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BERG |
