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| #287917 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:43 AM 13.Aug.2009) TCDAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022009 500 AM AST THU AUG 13 2009 THE DEPRESSION HAS A RATHER MEAGER AMOUNT OF CONVECTION THIS MORNING WITH JUST A FEW CELLS AROUND THE EXPOSED CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE DROPPING...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 25 KT. IF SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION DOES NOT DEVELOP SOON... THE SYSTEM COULD BE DECLARED A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY. ASSUMING THE DEPRESSION SURVIVES...THE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS IS MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR SOME STRENGTHENING WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING WATER TEMPERATURES WEST OF 40W AND PERHAPS A DECREASE IN MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS LOWERED FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE BUT STILL SHOWS THE DEPRESSION EVENTUALLY BECOMING A TROPICAL STORM. THIS IS A PRETTY LOW CONFIDENCE INTENSITY FORECAST AS THE DEPRESSION MAY NOT EVEN SURVIVE THE DAY. THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN MOVING SLOWER DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND A TWELVE-HOUR MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 270/10. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT THIS WESTWARD MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR A DAY OR SO WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST THEREAFTER AS A WEAKNESS DEVELOPS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE GLOBAL MODELS NOW INDICATE THAT THE DEPRESSION COULD BE TOO FAR SOUTH TO BE AFFECTED SIGNIFICANTLY BY THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE AND HAVE SHIFTED THE TRACK EQUATORWARD AS A RESULT. THE HWRF CONTINUES ON ITS OWN BY MOVING THE SYSTEM MORE TO THE NORTH...WHILE THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE IS PRETTY WELL-CLUSTERED ON A MORE SOUTHERN PATH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SOUTHWARD AND WITH MANY RELIABLE MODELS STILL SOUTH OF THE NHC TRACK...IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING TO SEE THE FORECAST MOVE FARTHER SOUTH LATER ON. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 13/0900Z 14.0N 36.9W 25 KT 12HR VT 13/1800Z 14.0N 38.5W 25 KT 24HR VT 14/0600Z 14.2N 40.7W 30 KT 36HR VT 14/1800Z 14.4N 43.0W 35 KT 48HR VT 15/0600Z 14.9N 45.9W 40 KT 72HR VT 16/0600Z 16.5N 52.0W 40 KT 96HR VT 17/0600Z 19.0N 59.0W 40 KT 120HR VT 18/0600Z 22.5N 65.0W 35 KT $$ FORECASTER BLAKE |
