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| #288050 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:43 PM 13.Aug.2009) TCDAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022009 500 PM AST THU AUG 13 2009 WHILE PERSISTING OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...THE AREA OF CONVECTION JUST WEST OF THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO IS TOO SMALL TO BE CLASSIFIED USING THE DVORAK TECHNIQUE. INDEED...IT HAS BEEN ALMOST 24 HR SINCE ENOUGH ORGANIZED CONVECTION EXISTED TO GET A DATA-T NUMBER. BASED ON THIS...THE DEPRESSION HAS DECAYED INTO A REMNANT LOW PRESSURE AREA. IT IS LIKELY THAT THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE BURSTS OF CONVECTION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND A FASTER FORWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS IS THE BASIS FOR KEEPING A 25 KT INTENSITY FOR THE REMNANTS THROUGH 120 HR. SEVERAL OF THE INTENSITY FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST STRENGTHENING...SO IF THE SYSTEM FINDS A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT IT COULD REGENERATE. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/8. THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE SYSTEM IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A WESTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AFTER THAT...IT SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT SEVERAL GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE REMNANT LOW WEAKENING TO A TROPICAL WAVE...AND IF THIS OCCURS THE SYSTEM COULD MOVE FARTHER SOUTH THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 13/2100Z 14.2N 38.3W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 12HR VT 14/0600Z 14.3N 39.7W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 24HR VT 14/1800Z 14.5N 42.2W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 15/0600Z 14.8N 44.8W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 15/1800Z 15.1N 47.7W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 16/1800Z 16.5N 54.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 17/1800Z 19.0N 61.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 18/1800Z 23.0N 67.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER BEVEN |
