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| #288538 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:34 PM 15.Aug.2009) TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM BILL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009 2100 UTC SAT AUG 15 2009 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.3N 35.2W AT 15/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 25NE 25SE 0SW 25NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 25NE 25SE 0SW 25NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.3N 35.2W AT 15/2100Z AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.3N 34.5W FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 11.2N 37.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 11.5N 40.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 12.0N 43.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 34 KT... 75NE 60SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 13.0N 46.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 34 KT... 75NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 14.5N 52.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 25SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 75SE 45SW 75NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 17.0N 58.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 19.5N 63.5W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.3N 35.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0300Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
