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| #288667 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:05 AM 16.Aug.2009) TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM ANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022009 500 AM AST SUN AUG 16 2009 AN ASCAT PASS AT 00Z SUGGESTED THAT ANA WAS STILL A TROPICAL STORM AT THAT TIME...BUT IT CONTINUES MOVING RAPIDLY WESTWARD WITH VERY LITTLE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION...AND MAY HAVE WEAKENED. FOR NOW HOWEVER...THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS UNCHANGED. THE ENVIRONMENT THROUGH WHICH ANA IS MOVING IS VERY DRY...AND THE SYSTEM HAS HAD DIFFICULTY MAINTAINING CONVECTION. THERE IS STILL INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWING AT LEAST SOME SHORT TERM INTENSIFICATION...AND SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL REFLECT THAT. LATER ON...THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN LOWERED DUE TO ANTICIPATED INTERACTION WITH LAND. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. ANA REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW AND THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS WELL CLUSTERED. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE BUT IS STILL SLOWER THAN MOST OF THE GUIDANCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 16/0900Z 14.6N 53.8W 35 KT 12HR VT 16/1800Z 15.0N 56.6W 35 KT 24HR VT 17/0600Z 15.9N 60.4W 40 KT 36HR VT 17/1800Z 16.8N 64.6W 40 KT 48HR VT 18/0600Z 17.6N 68.2W 45 KT 72HR VT 19/0600Z 20.0N 76.0W 30 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 20/0600Z 23.0N 82.0W 30 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 21/0600Z 25.0N 85.0W 30 KT $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN |
