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| #288792 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:34 PM 16.Aug.2009) TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042009 500 PM EDT SUN AUG 16 2009 EARLIER...THE CIRCULATION CENTER OF CLAUDETTE HAD BECOME EXPOSED TO THE WEST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION...LIKELY DUE TO SOME UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. HOWEVER...CONVECTION HAS RE-FORMED OVER THE CENTER IN THE LAST HOUR. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 45 KT FOR THIS PACKAGE...SUPPORTED BY OBSERVATIONS FROM STATION SGOF1...TYNDALL AFB TOWER C...LOCATED ABOUT 25 MILES OFFSHORE. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT CLAUDETTE COULD STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY PRIOR TO LANDFALL IF THE SHEAR WEAKENS...AS INDICATED BY THE GLOBAL MODELS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 315/12. THE TRACK REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED...AS CLAUDETTE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT...TOWARD THE MODEL CONSENSUS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK CLAUDETTE WILL MAKE LANDFALL TONIGHT IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. BEYOND THAT TIME...THE WEAKENING CYCLONE WILL TRACK NORTHWEST PRIOR TO DISSIPATING NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 16/2100Z 29.5N 85.6W 45 KT 12HR VT 17/0600Z 30.9N 86.6W 40 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 17/1800Z 32.7N 87.8W 30 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND 36HR VT 18/0600Z 34.5N 88.7W 20 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND 48HR VT 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN/ROBERTS |
