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| #288798 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:43 PM 16.Aug.2009) TCDAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022009 500 PM AST SUN AUG 16 2009 AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING ANA DID NOT FIND ANY WINDS TO SUPPORT TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY. IN FACT...ALL OF THE STRONG WINDS WERE WELL NORTH OF THE PRESSURE MINIMUM IN THE EASTERLY TRADE WIND FLOW. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 30 KT FOR THIS PACKAGE. THE AIRCRAFT ALSO STRUGGLED TO CLOSE OFF A WELL-DEFINED CENTER...HOWEVER...WE WILL CONTINUE ADVISORIES FOR NOW SINCE THE AIRCRAFT WILL STILL BE IN THE SYSTEM UNTIL 0000 UTC. IF A WELL-DEFINED CENTER CANNOT BE FOUND AT THAT TIME...ADVISORIES MAY BE DISCONTINUED. ANA CONTINUES MOVING WESTWARD VERY QUICKLY...ALONG A HEADING OF 280/20. THIS QUICK MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...EXCEPT A LITTLE FASTER TO ACCOUNT FOR THE QUICK INITIAL MOTION. THE INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE...WITH A POSSIBILITY FOR SLIGHT STRENGTHENING PRIOR TO THE CYCLONE REACHING HISPANIOLA. AFTER THAT TIME...THE INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR LAND INTERACTION WITH HISPANIOLA AND CUBA. TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ARE CONTINUED...GIVEN THAT THE CYCLONE IS NOT FAR BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH AND APPROACHING THE ISLANDS SOON. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 16/2100Z 15.1N 58.8W 30 KT 12HR VT 17/0600Z 15.7N 62.0W 30 KT 24HR VT 17/1800Z 16.7N 66.1W 30 KT 36HR VT 18/0600Z 17.8N 70.0W 35 KT 48HR VT 18/1800Z 18.8N 73.6W 30 KT 72HR VT 19/1800Z 21.5N 80.0W 30 KT 96HR VT 20/1800Z 23.5N 84.5W 30 KT 120HR VT 21/1800Z 25.0N 87.0W 30 KT $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN/ROBERTS |
