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| #28887 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:44 PM 28.Jun.2005) TCDAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 6 PM EDT TUE JUN 28 2005 AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO FOUND A SMALL WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION. DESPITE PROBLEMS WITH COMMUNICATIONS EQUIPMENT...THE CREW HAS BEEN ABLE TO PHONE IN KEY OBSERVATIONS. OUR THANKS TO THE CREW FOR RESPONDING ON SUCH SHORT NOTICE AND FOR THEIR PERSISTENCE IN TRYING TO GET THE DATA OUT. SO FAR...THE AIRCRAFT HAS FOUND A FEW SMALL SPOTS WITH FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OVER 40 KT...INDICATING THAT THE WINDS ARE VERY NEAR TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. THIS SYSTEM CERTAINLY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM PRIOR TO MAKING LANDFALL...BUT SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IS NOT LIKELY DUE TO THE LIMITED TIME THE CYCLONE WILL BE OVER WATER. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/6. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE DEPRESSION SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER NORTH TEXAS...AND REACH THE MEXICAN COASTLINE IN THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS. FORECASTER FRANKLIN/PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 28/2200Z 19.9N 95.7W 30 KT 12HR VT 29/0600Z 20.2N 96.6W 35 KT 24HR VT 29/1800Z 20.7N 97.7W 25 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 30/0600Z...DISSIPATED |
