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| #28915 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:54 PM 28.Jun.2005) TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM BRET DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT TUE JUN 28 2005 ON THEIR LAST PASS THROUGH BRET NEAR 00Z...THE AIRCRAFT CREW REPORTED THAT THE PRESSURE HAD RISEN TO 1005 MB...THAT THE SEA STATE LOOKED LESS DISTURBED THAN IT HAD BEEN...AND THAT THE RADAR PRESENTATION HAD DETERIORATED. THUS IT APPEARS THAT THE EARLIER DEVELOPMENT TREND HAS STALLED. CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES IN THE CDO FEATURE HAVE ALSO WARMED OVERALL THIS EVENING BUT ARE BEGINNING TO COOL AGAIN NOW. THERE IS STILL AN OPPORTUNITY FOR ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING DURING THE OVERNIGHT DIURNAL CONVECTIVE MAXIMUM. WINDS ALOFT ARE FAVORABLE AND THE WATERS UNDERNEATH ARE VERY WARM. BOTH THE GFDL AND SHIPS GUIDANCE INDICATE SOME MODEST INTENSIFICATION AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. ONE CAUTION...HOWEVER...IS THAT BRET IS A VERY SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND SUCH SYSTEMS CAN SPIN UP...OR DOWN...VERY QUICKLY. THE SEQUENCE OF AIRCRAFT FIXES YIELDED LITTLE OVERALL MOTION...BUT OVER THE LONGER TERM THE MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 290/4. THIS IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN BEFORE AND ALSO A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS MOTION. THIS SUGGESTS THAT BRET MAY HAVE A LITTLE MORE TIME OVER WATER THAN EARLIER THOUGHT. A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER TEXAS SHOULD KEEP BRET ON A BASIC WEST-NORTHWESTERLY TRACK UNTIL IT MAKES LANDFALL...ALTHOUGH THE GFDL MODEL IS AN OUTLIER IN FORECASTING BRET TO STALL OFFSHORE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE 850 MB EVOLUTION IN THE LATEST GFS RUN. BECAUSE OF THE OBLIQUE ANGLE AT WHICH BRET WILL BE APPROACHING THE COASTLINE...IT IS DIFFICULT TO SPECIFY PRECISELY THE LOCATION OR TIMING OF LANDFALL. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 29/0300Z 20.0N 95.9W 35 KT 12HR VT 29/1200Z 20.3N 96.4W 40 KT 24HR VT 30/0000Z 20.9N 97.4W 35 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 30/1200Z 21.5N 98.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 48HR VT 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED |
