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#289638 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:46 AM 20.Aug.2009)
TCMAT3
HURRICANE BILL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
1500 UTC THU AUG 20 2009

AT 11 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR BERMUDA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 61.7W AT 20/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 951 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.
64 KT....... 90NE 45SE 30SW 75NW.
50 KT.......120NE 90SE 60SW 100NW.
34 KT.......225NE 200SE 100SW 200NW.
12 FT SEAS..400NE 330SE 240SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 61.7W AT 20/1500Z
AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 61.0W

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 24.2N 63.8W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 90NE 45SE 30SW 75NW.
50 KT...120NE 90SE 60SW 100NW.
34 KT...225NE 200SE 100SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 26.6N 66.0W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 75NE 45SE 30SW 45NW.
50 KT...120NE 100SE 70SW 100NW.
34 KT...225NE 200SE 120SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 29.5N 67.5W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 75NE 45SE 30SW 45NW.
50 KT...120NE 100SE 70SW 100NW.
34 KT...225NE 200SE 120SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 32.5N 69.0W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT...120NE 100SE 70SW 100NW.
34 KT...225NE 200SE 120SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 40.5N 66.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT...120NE 120SE 70SW 100NW.
34 KT...225NE 225SE 120SW 180NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 48.0N 53.0W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 55.0N 28.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.6N 61.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA