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| #290351 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:43 AM 22.Aug.2009) TCDAT3 HURRICANE BILL DISCUSSION NUMBER 29 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009 1100 AM AST SAT AUG 22 2009 SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT BILL HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED AND THE T-NUMBERS HAVE CONTINUED TO DECREASE. INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED DOWN TO 85 KNOTS AND THIS VALUE COULD BE GENEROUS. AN AIR FORCE PLANE WILL CHECK BILL THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL GIVE US A BETTER ESTIMATE OF THE INTENSITY AND WIND RADII. BILL IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN ITS STRENGTH TODAY BUT WITH COLD WATERS AHEAD...A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN TONIGHT. IN ABOUT 48 HOURS...THE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION SHOULD BEGIN AND BY 72 HOURS BILL SHOULD BE FULLY EXTRATROPICAL. THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN TRACK. BILL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES ABOUT 20 KNOTS. THE HURRICANE IS ALREADY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW BETWEEN THE AZORES-BERMUDA HIGH AND A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS PATTERN SHOULD FORCE BILL TO RECURVE WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND BECAUSE THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE TIGHTLY PACKED...THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST. THE FORECAST TRACK BRINGS BILL TO THE WATERS JUST SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA IN 24 HOURS. THEREFORE...ENVIRONMENT CANADA HAS ISSUED WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR EASTERN REGIONS OF CANADA. LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY BILL ARE ARRIVING ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. THESE SWELLS WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD OVER THE WEEKEND...CAUSING EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SURF AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS. PLEASE CONSULT STATEMENTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE AND METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES FOR MORE DETAILS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 22/1500Z 35.1N 68.6W 85 KT 12HR VT 23/0000Z 38.0N 68.5W 85 KT 24HR VT 23/1200Z 42.5N 65.5W 75 KT 36HR VT 24/0000Z 46.0N 59.0W 65 KT 48HR VT 24/1200Z 49.5N 49.4W 50 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 25/1200Z 52.0N 24.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 26/1200Z 58.0N 9.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 27/1200Z 63.0N 5.0W 20 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
