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| #290473 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:37 PM 22.Aug.2009) TCDAT3 HURRICANE BILL DISCUSSION NUMBER 30 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009 500 PM AST SAT AUG 22 2009 AN AIR FORCE PLANE JUST PENETRATED AND SURVEYED HURRICANE BILL AND ALTHOUGH IT MEASURED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 961 MB...THE SURFACE WINDS REPORTED BY THE PLANE HAVE DECREASED...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 75 KNOTS. THIS INTENSITY IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY T-NUMBERS WHICH HAVE BEEN BETWEEN 4.0 AND 5.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE. BILL IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN ITS STRENGTH FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BUT WITH COLD WATERS AHEAD...A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN TONIGHT. BILL SHOULD BE FULLY EXTRATROPICAL IN ABOUT 48 HOURS AFTER THE CENTER PASSES NEAR OR OVER NEWFOUNDLAND. THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN TRACK. BILL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT ABOUT 21 KNOTS. THE HURRICANE IS ALREADY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW BETWEEN THE AZORES-BERMUDA HIGH AND A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS PATTERN SHOULD FORCE BILL TO TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST TONIGHT WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE TIGHTLY PACKED...RESULTING IN HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST. THE FORECAST TRACK BRINGS BILL TO THE WATERS JUST SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA IN 24 HOURS AND VERY NEAR OR OVER NEWFOUNDLAND BETWEEN 24 AND 36 HOURS AS A WEAKENING CYCLONE. LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY BILL ARE STILL AFFECTING THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. THESE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...CAUSING EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SURF AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS. PLEASE CONSULT STATEMENTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE AND METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES FOR MORE DETAILS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 22/2100Z 37.1N 68.8W 75 KT 12HR VT 23/0600Z 40.2N 67.6W 75 KT 24HR VT 23/1800Z 44.2N 63.2W 65 KT 36HR VT 24/0600Z 48.0N 54.5W 45 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 24/1800Z 50.0N 43.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 25/1800Z 52.0N 20.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 26/1800Z 57.0N 7.0W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 27/1800Z 64.0N 2.5W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
