Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 1995Hurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995
The Atlantic is quiet
|
Show Selection: |
| #291737 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:46 AM 28.Aug.2009) TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM DANNY DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052009 500 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2009 AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE HAS BEEN IN THE AREA OF DANNY SINCE AROUND 05 UTC AND FOUND THAT DANNY IS BARELY A TROPICAL STORM...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS CONFINED ONLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 35 KNOTS. AFTER SEVERAL HOURS OF THE CENTER BEING COMPLETELY EXPOSED DUE TO STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR...A NEW ROUND OF CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED NEAR THE CENTER. THE STRONG SHEAR NEARBY MOST LIKELY WILL REMOVE THE CONVECTION ONCE AGAIN AT ANY TIME. SINCE GLOBAL MODELS ARE BUILDING A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...THERE IS A SMALL OPPORTUNITY FOR SLIGHT STRENGTHENING DURING THIS PERIOD. THEREAFTER...WITH A LARGE TROUGH APPROACHING DANNY...THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS THAT THE CYCLONE WILL INTERACT WITH THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND BEGIN THE TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY 48 HOURS. THE CENTER HAS BEEN MOVING BETWEEN THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH-NORTHWEST DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT THE BEST LONG-TERM ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 330 DEGREES AT 8 KT. THE LARGE TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL FORCE DANNY TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTH AND THEN NORTHEAST WITH INCREASING FORWARD SPEED AFTER 24 HOURS. MOST OF THE TRACK MODELS KEEP THE CENTER OF DANNY AWAY FROM THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST...AND SINCE THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE CONFINED TO THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CYCLONE...IT IS NOT NECESSARY TO ISSUE A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE REGION CURRENTLY UNDER A TROPICAL STORM WATCH. THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT IN CASE THE WIND FIELD BECOMES BETTER DEFINED ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF DANNY DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS OR THE FORECAST UNEXPECTEDLY SHIFTS TO THE WEST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 28/0900Z 29.5N 74.4W 35 KT 12HR VT 28/1800Z 31.3N 74.7W 40 KT 24HR VT 29/0600Z 34.2N 74.0W 45 KT 36HR VT 29/1800Z 38.5N 71.5W 40 KT 48HR VT 30/0600Z 42.5N 67.0W 40 KT 72HR VT 31/0600Z 47.5N 59.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 01/0600Z 52.0N 47.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 02/0600Z 54.0N 26.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
