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| #292954 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:03 AM 02.Sep.2009) TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ERIKA ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062009 500 AM AST WED SEP 02 2009 ...DISORGANIZED ERIKA LIKELY TO PASS NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS... AT 5 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ANTIGUA...BARBUDA... MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND ANGUILLA. AT 5 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ST. MAARTEN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERIKA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERIKA WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 59.0 WEST OR ABOUT 280 MILES...455 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. ERIKA HAS BEEN MOVING GENERALLY WESTWARD NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/HR...AND A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK THE CENTER WILL PASS NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 120 MILES...195 KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES. ERIKA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES. ...SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST INFORMATION... LOCATION...17.0N 59.0W MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 MPH MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER PASCH |
