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| #293006 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:52 AM 02.Sep.2009) TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ERIKA ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062009 1100 AM AST WED SEP 02 2009 ...ERIKA APPROACHING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS... AT 11 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR GUADELOUPE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR GUADELOUPE...ST. MARTIN AND ST. BARTHELEMY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ANTIGUA...BARBUDA... MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...ANGUILLA...ST. MAARTEN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERIKA. TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THESE AREAS LATER TODAY. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERIKA WAS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.4 WEST OR ABOUT 100 MILES...165 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. ERIKA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR. A WEST- NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATER TODAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...ERIKA WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST TODAY WITH SOME SLIGHT RESTRENGTHENING POSSIBLE TOMORROW. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES. ERIKA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE LESSER ANTILLES DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES POSSIBLE. OVER PUERTO RICO...3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. ...SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST INFORMATION... LOCATION...16.5N 60.4W MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 10 MPH MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN |
