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| #293061 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:46 PM 02.Sep.2009) TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ERIKA ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062009 500 PM AST WED SEP 02 2009 ...ERIKA NOW IN THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...NEW WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED... AT 5 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF BARBADOS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR DOMINICA. AT 5 PM AST...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. AT 5 PM AST...THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUADELOUPE...ST. MARTIN...ST. BARTHELEMY...ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...ANGUILLA...ST. MAARTEN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERIKA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF POORLY ORGANIZED TROPICAL STORM ERIKA WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.7 WEST OR VERY NEAR GUADELOUPE AND ABOUT 320 MILES...515 KM...EAST- SOUTHEAST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO. ERIKA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR. A WEST- NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATER TONIGHT OR EARLY TOMORROW. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...ERIKA WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT AND APPROACHING PUERTO RICO LATE TOMORROW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST AND ERIKA COULD WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM PRIMARILY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES. ERIKA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE LESSER ANTILLES DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES POSSIBLE. OVER PUERTO RICO...3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. ...SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST INFORMATION... LOCATION...16.4N 61.7W MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 10 MPH MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN |
