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| #294200 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:37 AM 08.Sep.2009) TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM FRED FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072009 1500 UTC TUE SEP 08 2009 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 28.6W AT 08/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 90SE 90SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 60SE 60SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 28.6W AT 08/1500Z AT 08/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 28.0W FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 12.4N 30.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 90SE 90SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 13.3N 32.1W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 35NE 25SE 25SW 35NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 14.4N 33.2W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 15.7N 34.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 17.7N 34.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 19.0N 34.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 20.5N 35.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.9N 28.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE |
