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| #294559 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:37 AM 10.Sep.2009) TCDAT2 HURRICANE FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072009 500 AM AST THU SEP 10 2009 FRED IS MAINTAINING PLENTY OF CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER...WITH OCCASIONAL HINTS OF AN EYE ON GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE IMAGES. AN AMSR-E MICROWAVE PASS AT 0411Z SHOWED THAT THE HURRICANE STILL HAD AN INTACT INNER CORE...AND WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO THE SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 90 KT. THE CLOUD PATTERN IS BECOMING MORE ASYMMETRIC WITH MOST OF THE SIGNIFICANT BANDING IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE...HERALDING THE INCREASE IN SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. WEAKENING IS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS SSTS COOL ALONG THE FORECAST PATH AND SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR INCREASES. IN A DAY OR SO...FRED IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BE EMBEDDED WITHIN A RATHER DRY MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT...WHICH SHOULD HASTEN THE DEMISE OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE STATISTICAL MODELS AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE GFDL/HWRF STILL APPEAR TO UNREALISTICALLY KEEP FRED TOO INTENSE IN THE FACE OF RATHER STRONG SHEAR...THOUGH THEIR WIND SPEED FORECASTS ARE REDUCED FROM SIX HOURS AGO. THE AMSR-E PASS HELPED TO PLACE THE INITIAL MOTION AT 315/10. THE SYNOPTIC REASONING IS UNCHANGED FROM THE LAST ADVISORY AS FRED IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT IS STEERED BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND A TROUGH LOCATED TO ITS NORTHWEST. THEREAFTER... FRED IS FORECAST TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND DECELERATE AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH MOVES EAST AND THE STEERING FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD BECOME A SHALLOWER SYSTEM BY DAY 3...AND AS A RESULT SHOULD TURN BACK TO THE LEFT AND BE MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST BY DAY 5 UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LOW-LEVEL TRADE WINDS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY WEST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...ESPECIALLY AT THE END. IF THE SYSTEM WEAKENS FASTER THAN ANTICIPATED...A TRACK EVEN MORE TO THE WEST IS LIKELY...BUT IF FRED REMAINS A STRONGER TROPICAL CYCLONE...THEN IT COULD MOVE MORE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST THAN INDICATED BELOW. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 10/0900Z 15.9N 34.6W 90 KT 12HR VT 10/1800Z 16.6N 35.1W 80 KT 24HR VT 11/0600Z 17.4N 35.1W 75 KT 36HR VT 11/1800Z 17.9N 34.7W 65 KT 48HR VT 12/0600Z 18.2N 34.2W 55 KT 72HR VT 13/0600Z 19.5N 34.0W 40 KT 96HR VT 14/0600Z 21.5N 35.5W 30 KT 120HR VT 15/0600Z 23.0N 39.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER BLAKE |
