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| #294611 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:37 AM 10.Sep.2009) TCDAT2 HURRICANE FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072009 1100 AM AST THU SEP 10 2009 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT FRED STILL HAS AN EYE SURROUNDED BY DEEP CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT AS DISTINCT AS IT WAS YESTERDAY. THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME A LITTLE BIT ELONGATED DUE TO SOUTHERLY SHEAR THAT IS BEGINNING TO AFFECT THE HURRICANE. T-NUMBERS HAVE COME DOWN AND SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 85 KNOTS. BECAUSE FRED IS HEADING TOWARD A HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT OF STRONG SHEAR AND COOL WATERS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A GRADUAL WEAKENING. FRED COULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD OF EVEN EARLIER. THIS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL WHICH DISSIPATES THE CYCLONE AT 96 HOURS. BOTH THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS MAINTAIN FRED AS STRONG TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE BUT WITH SUCH PREVAILING HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT...THIS IS NOT REALISTIC. THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 320 DEGREES AT 6 KNOTS. HOWEVER...THE STEERING CURRENTS ARE FORECAST TO COLLAPSE AND FRED IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AND DRIFT NORTHWARD OR MOST LIKELY IT WILL MEANDER FOR TWO OR THREE DAYS. BY THEN...A RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP NORTH OF FRED...FORCING THE CYCLONE TO TAKE A MORE WEST-NORTHWEST PATH AS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE...PRIMARILY THE GLOBAL GFS AND THE ECMWF ARE FORECASTING THE WESTWARD BEND. BY THEN...GIVEN THE PREVAILING STRONG SHEAR FRED IS EXPECTED TO BE NO MORE THAN A WEAK DISTURBANCE STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 10/1500Z 16.8N 35.1W 85 KT 12HR VT 11/0000Z 17.5N 35.4W 75 KT 24HR VT 11/1200Z 18.0N 35.5W 65 KT 36HR VT 12/0000Z 18.2N 35.2W 55 KT 48HR VT 12/1200Z 18.6N 34.8W 45 KT 72HR VT 13/1200Z 20.5N 35.0W 35 KT 96HR VT 14/1200Z 22.0N 38.0W 30 KT 120HR VT 15/1200Z 24.0N 42.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
