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| #294677 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:40 PM 10.Sep.2009) TCDAT2 HURRICANE FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072009 500 PM AST THU SEP 10 2009 THE EYE HAS BEEN INTERMITTENT ON VISIBLE IMAGES AND THE CLOUD PATTERN IS BECOMING ELONGATED DUE TO INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. CONVECTION IS STILL DEEP NEAR THE CENTER AND THE OUTFLOW IS MOSTLY TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS DECREASED TO 80 KNOTS BASED ON LOWER DVORAK T-NUMBERS. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW MASSIVE UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AFFECTING THE CYCLONE VERY SOON. THESE WINDS ARE FUELED BY A STRONGER THAN NORMAL AND PERSISTENT MID-OCEANIC UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST OF FRED. THIS UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN FAVORS WEAKENING...AND THIS PROCESS SHOULD ACCELERATE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. IN ABOUT 4 DAYS...FRED SHOULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW. FRED IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH AT ABOUT 4 TO 6 KNOTS...BUT SOON STEERING CURRENTS ARE FORECAST TO COLLAPSE AND THE HURRICANE SHOULD BECOME STATIONARY OR BEGIN TO MEANDER AROUND 19 DEGREES NORTH DURING THE 2 OR 3 DAYS. THEREAFTER...GLOBAL MODELS DEVELOP A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE...FORCING FRED OR ITS REMNANTS TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST. BY THEN...FRED WILL PROBABLY BE A VERY WEAK SHALLOW CYCLONE STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL TRADE WINDS. IN IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT MOST OF THE GUIDANCE HAS CHANGED...AND NOW UNANIMOUSLY BEND THE TRACK WESTWARD. A COUPLE OF DAYS AGO...SOME OF THE MOST RELIABLE MODELS INCLUDING THE ECMWF TURNED FRED TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST TOWARD AFRICA OR EUROPE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 10/2100Z 17.3N 35.1W 80 KT 12HR VT 11/0600Z 17.9N 35.2W 70 KT 24HR VT 11/1800Z 18.1N 35.2W 60 KT 36HR VT 12/0600Z 18.2N 35.2W 50 KT 48HR VT 12/1800Z 18.3N 35.2W 40 KT 72HR VT 13/1800Z 19.5N 36.0W 30 KT 96HR VT 14/1800Z 21.5N 39.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 15/1800Z 22.5N 44.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
