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| #294840 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:37 AM 11.Sep.2009) TCDAT2 HURRICANE FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072009 1100 AM AST FRI SEP 11 2009 THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BEEN GRADUALLY DETERIORATING SINCE YESTERDAY AND HAS BECOME EVEN MORE ELONGATED DUE TO SHEAR. MICROWAVE DATA SHOWS THAT THE CENTER IS LOCATED ON THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE DEEP CONVECTION WITH SIGNIFICANT OUTFLOW ONLY TO THE NORTH. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 70 KNOTS BASED ON 4.0 AND 4.5 DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM SAB AND TAFB...AND A QUIKSCAT PASS OVER THE CYCLONE EARLIER TODAY. WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOW MASSIVE UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FROM THE CARIBBEAN EASTWARD ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONGER THAN NORMAL MID-OCEANIC TROUGH. IT IS HIGHLY UNLIKELY THAT FRED WILL SURVIVE SUCH HOSTILE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. THEREFORE...WEAKENING IS FORECAST. FRED IS EMBEDDED WITHIN VERY LIGHT STEERING CURRENTS. IT IS BASICALLY DRIFTING NORTHWARD AND NO SIGNIFICANT MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THEREAFTER...GLOBAL MODELS DEVELOP A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC AND THIS PATTERN WILL PROVIDE SOME WEST-NORTHWESTWARD STEERING TO WHATEVER IS LEFT OF THE CYCLONE. TRACK GUIDANCE RESPONDS TO THE LIGHT STEERING FLOW BY KEEPING FRED MEANDERING FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS...AND TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE RIDGE BY MOVING THE CYCLONE OR ITS REMNANTS WESTWARD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE GUIDANCE TREND. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 11/1500Z 18.0N 35.0W 70 KT 12HR VT 12/0000Z 18.1N 34.8W 60 KT 24HR VT 12/1200Z 18.2N 34.6W 50 KT 36HR VT 13/0000Z 18.5N 34.5W 40 KT 48HR VT 13/1200Z 19.0N 35.0W 30 KT 72HR VT 14/1200Z 20.5N 38.5W 25 KT 96HR VT 15/1200Z 22.0N 43.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 16/1200Z 23.0N 49.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
