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| #295144 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:40 PM 12.Sep.2009) TCDAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER 21 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072009 500 PM AST SAT SEP 12 2009 OTHER THAN A SHORT-LIVED PUFF OF DEEP CONVECTION WELL-REMOVED FROM THE CIRCULATION CENTER...FRED IS NOW A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION. IN FACT...THERE HAS BEEN NO CENTRAL CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH FRED SINCE ABOUT 0000 UTC....AND FRED IS NO LONGER CLASSIFIABLE USING THE DVORAK TECHNIQUE. THE LACK OF DEEP CONVECTION ALSO MEANS THAT FRED IS NO LONGER A TROPICAL CYCLONE... AND IS NOW DECLARED A REMNANT LOW. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 30 KT...BASED UPON AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS AND THE ASSUMPTION THAT THERE HAS BEEN ADDITIONAL WEAKENING SINCE THAT TIME. WHAT REMAINS OF FRED SHOULD BEGIN MOVING NORTHWESTWARD TO WEST- NORTHWESTWARD WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...AS A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS TO ITS NORTH. SEVERAL GLOBAL MODELS STILL MAINTAIN THE REMNANTS OF FRED DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...A RATHER HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK SHOULD MAKE REGENERATION A SLIM POSSIBILITY. THIS IS THE LAST NHC ADVISORY ON FRED. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 12/2100Z 17.7N 33.7W 30 KT...REMNANT LOW 12HR VT 13/0600Z 18.1N 34.1W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 24HR VT 13/1800Z 19.0N 35.1W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 14/0600Z 19.8N 37.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 14/1800Z 21.1N 39.6W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 15/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN |
