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| #297870 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:40 PM 25.Sep.2009) TCDAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082009 1100 PM AST FRI SEP 25 2009 THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE CONVECTION WAS MINIMAL BUT IT HAS BEGUN TO BLOSSOM AS WE SPEAK. ALTHOUGH THE T-NUMBERS HAVE DECREASED...FOR THE SAKE OF CONTINUITY...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 30 KNOTS. THE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE MARGINAL FOR STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO...AND THE DEPRESSION HAS A SMALL OPPORTUNITY TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON SATURDAY. THEREAFTER... STRONG SHEAR AND COOLER WATERS WILL INDUCE WEAKENING...AND THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY 72 HOURS OR SOONER. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 KNOTS WHILE LOCATED ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A SMALL MID-LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. SINCE THE PATTERN IS NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE...THIS GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE UNTIL DISSIPATION. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS DO NOT EVEN ACKNOWLEDGE THE PRESENCE OF THE DEPRESSION OR DEPICT THE DEPRESSION AS A SMALL VORTMAX. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 26/0300Z 17.4N 32.3W 30 KT 12HR VT 26/1200Z 18.4N 33.9W 35 KT 24HR VT 27/0000Z 19.6N 36.0W 30 KT 36HR VT 27/1200Z 21.0N 37.5W 25 KT 48HR VT 28/0000Z 22.5N 38.8W 25 KT 72HR VT 29/0000Z 24.0N 40.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 30/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
