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| #29907 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:46 AM 04.Jul.2005) TCDAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT MON JUL 04 2005 THE DEPRESSION HAS BECOME QUITE DISORGANIZED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ARE AMBIGUOUS ABOUT THE LOCATION OF A CENTER...AND SOUNDING DATA FROM MERIDA SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM IS TILTED WITH THE MID-LEVEL CENTER LOCATED NORTHEAST OF THE POORLY-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CENTER. MY ADVISORY POSITION AND MOTION ARE HEAVILY WEIGHTED BY CONTINUITY...AND THERE IS LARGE UNCERTAINTY IN THESE VALUES. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A NEW CENTER WILL REFORM NEAR THE NORTH COAST OF THE PENINSULA. AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM WHEN IT MOVES OFF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA LATER TODAY. INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 25 KT. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INSIST THAT NO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM WILL OCCUR OVER THE NEXT FEW DAY. HOWEVER...IF THE CYCLONE SURVIVES AND MOVES INTO THE GULF...THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS DO NOT APPEAR TO BE HOSTILE FOR STRENGTHENING. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND IS A BLEND OF THE GFDL AND SHIPS GUIDANCE. THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING IS ABOUT THE SAME AS IN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO MOVE AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE NEAR FLORIDA. ALTHOUGH THE STEERING REGIME DOES NOT LOOK TOO COMPLICATED...DYNAMICAL TRACK GUIDANCE IS QUITE DIVERGENT...RANGING FROM TRACKS TOWARD NORTHEAST MEXICO TO THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE OF THESE VARIOUS SOLUTIONS AND IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 04/1500Z 20.7N 89.2W 25 KT 12HR VT 05/0000Z 21.9N 90.2W 30 KT 24HR VT 05/1200Z 23.6N 91.6W 40 KT 36HR VT 06/0000Z 25.7N 93.0W 50 KT 48HR VT 06/1200Z 27.5N 93.5W 55 KT 72HR VT 07/1200Z 30.5N 93.5W 40 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 08/1200Z 32.0N 92.0W 30 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 09/1200Z 33.0N 89.0W 20 KT...DISSIPATING |
