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| #29995 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:04 PM 04.Jul.2005) TCDAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT MON JUL 04 2005 THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE INNER CORE...WHILE OUTER CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES HAVE IMPROVED OVER THE LAST 3-6 HOURS. A SHIP NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER REPORTED 33 KT WINDS AROUND 18Z...BUT THE LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION PRECLUDES INCREASING THE INTENSITY TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE AT THIS TIME. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 340/11. THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION SEEMS TO BE GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED DESPITE THE LACK OF DEEP CONVECTION...WHICH WILL PROBABLY REDEVELOP LATER TONIGHT. THE OVERALL CIRCULATION ENVELOPE APPEARS TO BE ELONGATED NORTH-SOUTH AS IT PASSES ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED MORE TO THE RIGHT...OR EAST...COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK WAS SHIFTED TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT NOT AS FAR EAST AS THE MODEL CONSENSUS. THE OUTFLOW IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE IS NOT AS RESTRICTED AS IT HAS BEEN DURING THE PREVIOUS 12 HOURS...AND CIRRUS HAS BEEN NOTED PUSHING MORE WESTWARD. HOWEVER...DESPITE THE FAVORABLE OUTFLOW PATTERN...A BATTLE EXISTS BETWEEN VERY DRY AIR TO THE WEST AND THE VERY MOIST UNSTABLE AIR TO THE EAST. THE DRY AIR HAS BEEN WINNING OUT FOR THE MOST PART...AND THE SHIPS MODEL CONTINUES THAT TREND. FOR THAT REASON...ONLY MODEST INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST EVEN THOUGH THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS LOW AND SSTS ARE NEAR 29C. OF COURSE ...BY 26 HOURS...THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE WILL BE NEAR THE COAST OF SOUTHERN LOUSIANA DURING THE EARLY MORNING CONVECTIVE MAXIMUM PERIOD...SO THERE MAY BE ONE LAST DEEP BURST OF CONVECTION AT THAT TIME WHICH COULD ALLOW TH SYSTEM TO REACH 50 KT OR SO INTENSITY. THE GREATER NEW ORLEANS AREA IS NOT UNDER THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AT THIS TIME. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 05/0300Z 23.9N 89.7W 30 KT 12HR VT 05/1200Z 25.6N 90.5W 35 KT 24HR VT 06/0000Z 27.6N 90.9W 45 KT 36HR VT 06/1200Z 29.4N 91.2W 50 KT 48HR VT 07/0000Z 31.0N 90.7W 35 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 08/0000Z 32.5N 89.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND 96HR VT 09/0000Z 33.5N 88.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW INLAND 120HR VT 10/0000Z 34.5N 86.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW INLAND |
