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#29997 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:20 PM 04.Jul.2005)
TCDAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT MON JUL 04 2005

SATELLITE INFORMATION AND SURROUNDING SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
THE STRONG TROPICAL LOW OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAS
DEVELOPED INTO TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
BASED ON SATELLITE ESTIMATES OF 25 KT AND AN EARLIER 31-KT WIND
REPORT FROM ST. LUCIA.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/15. THE DEPRESSION IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN A DEEP-LAYERED EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW PATTERN...AND THIS
PATTERN IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. THE
CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY GAIN LATITUDE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST FORECAST WHEN THE CENTER NEARS THE SOUTH COAST OF
CUBA. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS STRONGLY CONVERGENT ON THIS GENERAL
TRACK THROUGH 72 HOURS...BUT THEN THEY DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER
THAT WITH THE ECMWF...NOGAPS...CANADIAN...AND THE BAM MODELS
BRINGING THE CYCLONE NEAR SOUTH FLORIDA...AND THE UKMET...GFS...AND
GFDL MOEELS TAKING THE STORM OVER OR JUST WEST OF THE LOWER KEYS IN
96 HOURS OR SO.

WHILE THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN LOOKS QUITE IMPRESSIVE ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...THE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS ALMOST TOO LARGE
FOR SUCH A SMALL CIRCULATION TO INTENSIFY VERY QUICKLY. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE LESS THAN THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS
...WHICH BRING THE INTENSITY UP TO ABOUT 70 KT IN 72 HOURS AND 80
KT IN 96 AND 120 HOURS.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 05/0300Z 12.5N 63.1W 25 KT
12HR VT 05/1200Z 13.3N 65.3W 30 KT
24HR VT 06/0000Z 14.7N 68.3W 35 KT
36HR VT 06/1200Z 16.3N 71.4W 45 KT
48HR VT 07/0000Z 17.8N 74.4W 55 KT
72HR VT 08/0000Z 20.9N 78.5W 65 KT...NEAR SOUTH COAST CUBA
96HR VT 09/0000Z 23.5N 81.0W 65 KT...NEAR NORTH COAST CUBA
120HR VT 10/0000Z 26.0N 83.0W 70 KT