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| #29997 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:20 PM 04.Jul.2005) TCDAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT MON JUL 04 2005 SATELLITE INFORMATION AND SURROUNDING SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE STRONG TROPICAL LOW OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAS DEVELOPED INTO TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE ESTIMATES OF 25 KT AND AN EARLIER 31-KT WIND REPORT FROM ST. LUCIA. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/15. THE DEPRESSION IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A DEEP-LAYERED EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW PATTERN...AND THIS PATTERN IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY GAIN LATITUDE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST FORECAST WHEN THE CENTER NEARS THE SOUTH COAST OF CUBA. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS STRONGLY CONVERGENT ON THIS GENERAL TRACK THROUGH 72 HOURS...BUT THEN THEY DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER THAT WITH THE ECMWF...NOGAPS...CANADIAN...AND THE BAM MODELS BRINGING THE CYCLONE NEAR SOUTH FLORIDA...AND THE UKMET...GFS...AND GFDL MOEELS TAKING THE STORM OVER OR JUST WEST OF THE LOWER KEYS IN 96 HOURS OR SO. WHILE THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN LOOKS QUITE IMPRESSIVE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...THE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS ALMOST TOO LARGE FOR SUCH A SMALL CIRCULATION TO INTENSIFY VERY QUICKLY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE LESS THAN THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS ...WHICH BRING THE INTENSITY UP TO ABOUT 70 KT IN 72 HOURS AND 80 KT IN 96 AND 120 HOURS. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 05/0300Z 12.5N 63.1W 25 KT 12HR VT 05/1200Z 13.3N 65.3W 30 KT 24HR VT 06/0000Z 14.7N 68.3W 35 KT 36HR VT 06/1200Z 16.3N 71.4W 45 KT 48HR VT 07/0000Z 17.8N 74.4W 55 KT 72HR VT 08/0000Z 20.9N 78.5W 65 KT...NEAR SOUTH COAST CUBA 96HR VT 09/0000Z 23.5N 81.0W 65 KT...NEAR NORTH COAST CUBA 120HR VT 10/0000Z 26.0N 83.0W 70 KT |
