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| #300300 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:37 AM 08.Oct.2009) TCDAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION HENRI DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102009 500 AM AST THU OCT 08 2009 ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE REDEVELOPED NEAR THE ESTIMATED CENTER OF CIRCULATION...THE CONVECTION IS POORLY ORGANIZED AND PROBABLY TRANSIENT. HENRI HAS A VERY SMALL CIRCULATION THAT CONTINUES TO BE IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...DIAGNOSED AT AROUND 20 KT BY THE SHIPS MODEL. THEREFORE...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS IF NOT SOONER. THE SHEAR IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OR SHEAR AXIS SITUATED JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE UPPER TROUGH WILL WEAKEN WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THEREAFTER... HENRI OR ITS REMNANT LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO AN AREA OF UPPER-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY TO NORTHERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE 200 MB ANTICYCLONE CENTERED JUST EAST OF FLORIDA. ALTHOUGH THE SHEAR OVER HENRI OR ITS REMNANT DISTURBANCE WILL PROBABLY LESSEN SOMEWHAT IN A DAY OR TWO...SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED ANTICYCLONE SHOULD PRODUCE A LARGE-SCALE DYNAMICAL ENVIRONMENT THAT IS NOT VERY CONDUCIVE FOR RESTRENGTHENING. SATELLITE FIXES INDICATE THAT THE MOTION CONTINUES AT AROUND 285/13. HENRI OR ITS REMNANT LOW SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE WEST OR EVEN A LITTLE SOUTH OF WEST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT BECOMES INFLUENCED BY A STRONG MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE EXTREME WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS NEAR THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 08/0900Z 19.9N 61.3W 30 KT 12HR VT 08/1800Z 20.5N 62.7W 30 KT 24HR VT 09/0600Z 20.8N 64.6W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 09/1800Z 20.7N 66.7W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 10/0600Z 20.5N 69.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 11/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER PASCH |
