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#30034 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:54 AM 05.Jul.2005)
TCMAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042005
0900Z TUE JUL 05 2005

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
COAST OF HISPANIOLA LATER TODAY. INTERESTS IN THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 64.4W AT 05/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 64.4W AT 05/0900Z
AT 05/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 63.7W

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 13.2N 66.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 14.5N 69.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 25NW.
34 KT... 75NE 50SE 25SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 16.5N 72.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 25NW.
34 KT... 75NE 50SE 25SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 18.0N 75.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 25NW.
34 KT... 75NE 50SE 25SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 20.5N 79.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 23.0N 82.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 25.0N 84.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.6N 64.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/1500Z

FORECASTER AVILA