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| #300347 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:34 AM 08.Oct.2009) TCDAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION HENRI DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102009 1100 AM AST THU OCT 08 2009 HENRI REMAINS A POORLY ORGANIZED TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITH EVIDENCE FROM SATELLITE IMAGES OF MULTIPLE LOW-LEVEL VORTICITY CENTERS WITHIN THE CIRCULATION ENVELOPE. IN ADDITION...DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN DWINDLING DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH LITTLE BANDING NOTED. A 1012 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS HAD MAXIMUM WINDS OF ABOUT 30 KT...AND THIS VALUE WILL BE USED AS THE INITIAL INTENSITY. THE CYCLONE WILL REMAIN IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR TODAY...FOLLOWED BY NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR AND CONVERGENT FLOW ALOFT. NEITHER OF THESE SITUATIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION...AND HENRI SHOULD JUST SLOWLY WEAKEN. ADVISORIES WILL BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY UNLESS THE SYSTEM SHOWS IMPROVED ORGANIZATION. THE BEST ESTIMATE OF INITIAL MOTION IS 280/11. HENRI OR ITS REMNANT LOW SHOULD MOVE TOWARD THE WEST OR A LITTLE SOUTH OF WEST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT BECOMES STEERED BY STRONG RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND REMAINS NEAR THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 08/1500Z 19.8N 62.0W 30 KT 12HR VT 09/0000Z 20.1N 63.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 24HR VT 09/1200Z 20.2N 65.6W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 10/0000Z 20.2N 67.8W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 10/1200Z 20.2N 70.2W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 11/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BLAKE |
