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| #30041 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:02 AM 05.Jul.2005) TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM CINDY DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT TUE JUL 05 2005 SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS BUT DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT THE CIRCULATION IS BECOMING A LITTLE BETTER DEFINED AND WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 45 TO 50 KTS AT FLIGHT LEVEL WITHIN A CONVECTIVE BAND TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER AND THE CENTRAL PRESSURE DROPPED TO 1002 MB. THEREFORE...THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM CINDY...THE THIRD NAMED CYCLONE OF THE SEASON. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING..BUT THE SHEAR IS LIGHT ENOUGH TO ALLOW SOME ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN INTENSITY BEFORE LANDFALL. THIS IS INDICATED BY SHIPS AND THE GFDL. CINDY APPEARS TO BE MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 12 KNOTS. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN BAHAMAS WILL LIKELY FORCE CINDY ON A GENERAL NORTHWARD TRACK TOWARD THE LOUISIANA COAST AND DUE TO THE IN INITIAL MOTION AND LATEST TRACK GUIDANCE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED A LITTLE BIT TO THE RIGHT. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 05/0900Z 25.6N 90.4W 35 KT 12HR VT 05/1800Z 27.3N 90.7W 40 KT 24HR VT 06/0600Z 29.3N 90.5W 45 KT 36HR VT 06/1800Z 31.0N 90.0W 30 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 07/0600Z 32.5N 88.5W 25 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 08/0600Z 34.9N 85.4W 20 KT...DISSIPATING 96HR VT 09/0600Z 37.2N 82.7W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 10/0600Z 40.1N 78.4W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW |
