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#30176 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:50 PM 05.Jul.2005)
TCMAT4
TROPICAL STORM DENNIS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042005
2100Z TUE JUL 05 2005

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF HAITI HAS CHANGED THE
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE SOUTHWEST PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER AND PORT-AU-PRINCE WESTWARD TO A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH.

ALSO AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA WESTWARD TO A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING.

ALSO AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR JAMAICA.

INTERESTS IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 68.3W AT 05/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 17 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 0SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 68.3W AT 05/2100Z
AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 67.6W

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 15.4N 70.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 17.0N 73.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 25NW.
34 KT... 75NE 50SE 25SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 18.4N 75.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 30SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 19.9N 78.4W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 30SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 22.0N 82.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 24.0N 84.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 26.5N 86.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.2N 68.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0300Z

FORECASTER KNABB