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| #30441 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:10 AM 06.Jul.2005) TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM DENNIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT WED JUL 06 2005 DENNIS APPEARS TO BE VERY CLOSE TO HURRICANE STRENGTH...BUT THE INNER CORE SEEMS TO STILL BE IN THE ORGANIZING STAGES. 12Z DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS WERE T4.0/65 KT FROM TAFB AND T3.5/55 KT FROM SAB...AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY WILL COMPROMISE AT 60 KT. THE CONVECTIVE TOPS OF THE BANDING EVIDENT AT 12Z HAVE SINCE WARMED SLIGHTLY...BUT A NEW CONVECTIVE BURST HAS RECENTLY OCCURRED NEAR THE ESTIMATED CENTER LOCATION. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE DENNIS THIS AFTERNOON TO BETTER DETERMINE THE INTENSITY. OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN FAVORABLE THROUGHOUT THE FIVE-DAY FORECAST PERIOD... INCLUDING WARM WATERS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND GULF OF MEXICO...AND WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AS INDICATED BY MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND TO THE LATEST GFDL RUN IN BRINGING DENNIS TO MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS BY 48 HOURS. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/13. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CURRENTLY CENTERED NORTH OF CUBA IS THE PRIMARY MECHANISM THAT SHOULD STEER DENNIS GENERALLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST FOR ABOUT THE NEXT THREE DAYS UNTIL IT CROSSES CUBA. THEREAFTER...A GRADUAL TURN TO THE RIGHT AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED. THE DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY CLOSE AGREEMENT THROUGH DAY THREE...BUT WITH SOME DIVERGENCE THEREAFTER OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...WITH THE GFS ON THE LEFT AND THE GFDL...UKMET...AND NOGAPS ON THE RIGHT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS VERY CLOSE TO A CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS...INCLUDING THE FASTER CONU AND THE SLOWER FLORIDA STATE UNIVERSITY SUPERENSEMBLE. IT IS IMPORTANT TO EMPHASIZE THAT FORECAST ERRORS AT THESE LONGER RANGES CAN BE QUITE LARGE...AND ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK FORECAST. FORECASTER KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 06/1500Z 15.4N 71.5W 60 KT 12HR VT 07/0000Z 16.5N 73.5W 65 KT 24HR VT 07/1200Z 18.1N 76.1W 75 KT 36HR VT 08/0000Z 19.8N 78.7W 90 KT 48HR VT 08/1200Z 21.1N 80.9W 100 KT 72HR VT 09/1200Z 23.5N 84.0W 100 KT 96HR VT 10/1200Z 27.0N 85.5W 100 KT 120HR VT 11/1200Z 30.5N 87.0W 100 KT...INLAND |
