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| #306002 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:55 PM 04.Nov.2009) TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009 100 PM EST WED NOV 04 2009 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION CLOSE TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...AIR FORCE PLANE IS EN ROUTE... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE EASTERN COAST OF NICARAGUA AND FOR THE ISLANDS OF SAN ANDRES AND PROVIDENCIA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. AT 100 PM EST...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.3 WEST OR ABOUT 65 MILES...105 KM...SOUTHWEST OF SAN ANDRES ISLAND AND ABOUT 100 MILES...160 KM...EAST OF BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA. THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR...BUT A SLOWER MOTION IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. ON THE FORECAST TRACK THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION WILL BE NEAR THE EAST COAST OF NICARAGUA THIS EVENING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED UNTIL LANDFALL. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 7 INCHES OVER SAN ANDRES ISLAND WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 15 TO 20 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER EASTERN NICARAGUA AND EASTERN HONDURAS WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 25 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOOD AND MUD SLIDES. ...SUMMARY OF 100 PM EST INFORMATION... LOCATION...11.8N 82.3W MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 7 MPH MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 400 PM EST. $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN |
