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| #306414 (Received by flhurricane at: 9:55 AM 06.Nov.2009) TCDAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009 1000 AM EST FRI NOV 06 2009 SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT BANDS OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO FORM IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF IDA...THOUGH SOMEWHAT REMOVED FROM THE CENTER. NOAA BUOY 42057 SHOWED PEAK 1-MINUTE WINDS OF 29 KT EARLIER THIS MORNING...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 30 KT. IDA WILL HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME RESTRENGTHENING OVERNIGHT AFTER IT EMERGES FROM EASTERN HONDURAS. THERE CONTINUES TO BE A LARGE DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS ON HOW MUCH INTENSIFICATION TO EXPECT WITH IDA. THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE GENERALLY SHOWS A RATHER MODEST AMOUNT OF RESTRENGTHENING...WHILE THE REGIONAL HURRICANE MODELS SUGGEST THAT IDA WILL BECOME A HURRICANE AGAIN. SINCE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR 20 KT OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN BY MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS...AND EVEN HIGHER IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE NHC FORECAST WILL STAY MUCH CLOSER TO THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE. AT THE END OF PERIOD...SOME WEAKENING IS SHOWN DUE TO SHEAR BECOMING STRONG AND COOLER WATERS IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...WHICH WILL LIKELY START THE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION OF IDA. IDA HAS TURNED TOWARD THE NORTH...360/6. A WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA IS FORECAST TO STEER THE STORM NORTHWARD FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THEREAFTER... IDA SHOULD TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES BUILDS. IN THE LONG-RANGE...A TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COULD FORCE IDA TO TURN TO THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST. HOWEVER...THE INTERACTION OF IDA WITH THAT TROUGH IS CAUSING A WIDE VARIETY OF MODEL SOLUTIONS... RANGING FROM A FASTER CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO LANDFALL TO IDA REMAINING SEPARATE FROM THE TROUGH AND STAYING OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WATERS. ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE MODELS HAVE SHIFTED WESTWARD SINCE THE LAST RUN...CLIMATOLOGY AND THE FORECAST STRONG UPPER- LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS SUGGEST THE EASTERN SOLUTIONS ARE LIKELY CLOSER TO REALITY. THE NHC FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THERE IS STILL A THREAT OF LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES CAUSED BY EXTREMELY HEAVY RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF HONDURAS TODAY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 06/1500Z 15.0N 84.0W 30 KT 12HR VT 07/0000Z 15.7N 84.1W 30 KT...OVER WATER 24HR VT 07/1200Z 16.8N 84.5W 35 KT 36HR VT 08/0000Z 17.9N 85.1W 40 KT 48HR VT 08/1200Z 19.1N 85.8W 45 KT 72HR VT 09/1200Z 22.5N 87.5W 45 KT 96HR VT 10/1200Z 25.0N 87.5W 45 KT 120HR VT 11/1200Z 27.0N 86.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN |
